quick takes as the market moves.

embracing the volatility. risk management has to be airtight, with a volatile week. ai pacing problem, iran war developing, yields at 5%.

i think the markets are underpricing the iran war, but lets see. i smell trouble ahead, but as always, where theres volatility, theres opportunity.

We now have the CPI data of 3.4% in line with expectations, after a higher than consensus PPI release the day prior. My guess is a 25bps rate hike will be coming next week.

Either way, still positioned for a market pullback. Would say a correction is due soon. I do remain bullish on the market overall in the long term, just gotta get through these short term hurdles cleanly.

30Y yields at 5.34% and 10Y yields at 4.91% as PPI results come out hotter than expected signaling sticky inflation. CPI tomorrow.

Markets pricing in a 62.4% rate hike in September, with the Iran conflict showing no signs of slowing down. PPI and CPI data coming up, that will be the biggest market mover of the week and potentially of the whole month. 10 year yields at 4.849% as I’m writing this even as the US Treasury announced it is buying back $8 billion in long term debt, tripling levels before the recent intervention announcement.

Markets are getting interesting as earnings season come to a close. Present day, I am cautious with my positions but definitely a lot of opportunities and mispricings coming soon. Building my pre-built shopping list, to override psychological fear during market downturns.

hello world.

CPI came in hot and the market’s throwing a tantrum. Nothing about a good business changed in the last hour. Watching, not doing.

Added it to the watchlist, not the portfolio. There’s a difference, and most of investing lives in it.